This project analyses precipitation, wind speed, and temperature data from Cyclone Narrel in Far North Queensland. Comparing forecast predictions with actual observed conditions to evaluate performance and risk. I looked at multiple weather predictions from different time horizons as predictions diminish the further the time horizon is extended. More lead time for severe weather events allows for better preparation. The location of observations was the town of Coen.
Data obtained from open-meteo.com using previous run data from ECMWF IFS HRES 9km.
Forecast Confidence: Low (7 days), Moderate (1 day)
Primary Risk: Rainfall underprediction during peak hours
Impact: Reduced preparation time for flood response
Recommended Action: Adopt conservative planning assumptions and prepare for worst-case rainfall scenarios
Agriculture: Farmers may delay protective actions, increasing crop damage risk.
Aviation: Unexpected conditions could impact flight safety and scheduling.
Emergency Services: Reduced warning time for flood response. Leading to delayed evacuation orders and increased risk to public safety.
This analysis highlights the importance of communicating uncertainty, not just forecast values. Meteorological services must translate data into actionable insights to support real-world decisions.
Forecasts are improving as you get closer to the event, but understanding their limitations is crucial for effective risk management. As time to prepare for severe weather events is crucial for effective response.